Renewables (excluding hydropower) are expected to reach 60.8GW capacity in 2030 registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4%, according to analysts GlobalData.

The company’s latest report ‘Brazil Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’ reveals that, installed renewable capacity in Brazil increased from 2.9 Gigawatt (GW) in 2000 to 31.1GW in 2018, at a CAGR of 14%.

Arkapal Sil, industry analyst at GlobalData, says: “Brazil’s renewable energy auctions since June 2007, along with other government policies such as the National Climate Change Plan, the Brazilian Energy Plan, (PDE) 2027 and the Plan for Energy Expansion 2010-2019 etc, have been instrumental in increasing the country’ renewable capacity base. During 2019-2030, installed renewable capacity in Brazil is slated to increase from 34.2GW to 60.8GW at a CAGR of 5.4%.”

Sil continues, “Hydropower accounts for the majority of installed renewable capacity in 2018 at 62.7%. Hydropower capacity is expected to grow at 0.9% CAGR to reach 112.5GW in 2030 from 102GW in 2019. Hydropower is expected to have a share of 52% of installed capacity in 2030. Brazil has abundant hydro potential and therefore the technology is expected to maintain its lion’s share in the country’s generation mix till 2030.”

“Wind power sector is dominated by onshore segment as the country does not have offshore wind installations. Brazil’s onshore capacity is expected to grow at 5.5% CAGR from 2019 to 2030 to reach 29.6GW from 16.3GW. On the other hand, solar PV capacity is slated to grow at a whopping 14% CAGR to reach 13.6GW in 2030 from 3.1GW in 2019. The significant rise in these two technologies will result in renewable energy being the second largest contributor to the country’s energy mix by 2030. ”

“Gas capacity was the highest among thermal resources and accounted for 9.3% of total installed capacity in 2018. Gas capacity is set to increase at 5.5% CAGR to reach 27.5GW by 2030 from 15.2GW in 2019. Similarly, coal-based capacity is set to increase at 3% CAGR over the forecast period to reach 5.8GW in 2030. Oil-based capacity, however, is slated to decrease at 4% CAGR to reach 5.7GW in 2030 from 8.7GW in 2019.”

“The connection of over 25,000 power systems, mostly solar PV systems to the Brazilian grid in mid-2018 under the net metering scheme, further underpins the renewable growth pattern over the forecast period.”

Sil continues, “Due to government support and the abundance of untapped hydropower potential, installed hydropower capacity is expected to increase substantially from 2018, reaching 16.5GW in 2030, at a CAGR of 3.8%.”

GlobalData’s report also reveals that the main challenges for Brazil’s power sector are its overdependence on cheap hydropower for base-load capacity and lack of a robust power grid infrastructure. In 2018 hydropower accounted for 62.7% of the country’s total installed capacity. In case of a drought, depletion of dam reservoirs could result in power shortages and switching over to costly thermal power which will increase the electricity prices.

In the long term, hydropower capacity is expected to decline and compensated with increased renewable power capacity. On the other hand, thermal and renewable capacity is slated to increase and contribute 28% and 18% of the installed capacity in 2030.”

“Brazil is moving towards a balanced energy mix as it prepares to double its non-hydro renewable power capacity by 2030. With an almost 10GW increase in thermal power capacity by 2030 compared to 2018, the country is on course to better manage peak demand, reduce dependence on hydropower and maintain a healthy grid”, concludes Sil.