Global solar PV module market value to drop by nearly 40% by 2022

15 January 2019 (Last Updated January 15th, 2019 13:17)

The global solar PV module market registered a value of $38.9bn in 2017 and is expected to decline to $23.7bn in 2022.

Global solar PV module market value to drop by nearly 40% by 2022
Effective policies and favourable incentives contributed to the large deployment of solar PV in the historical period.

The global solar PV module market registered a value of $38.9bn in 2017 and is expected to decline to $23.7bn in 2022.  According to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, the global solar PV module market held an aggregated value of $188.5bn between 2012 and 2017, with the aggregate market value likely to be $137.6bn between 2018 and 2022. In 2017, Asia-Pacific represented the largest solar PV module market, registering 74.9% of the global market share, followed by Americas and EMEA with 15% and 10% respectively, of the global market value. The EMEA and Americas market are expected to increase their market share, as countries within the regions move towards increased utilisation of solar.

The company’s latest report Solar PV Module, Update 2018 – Global Market Size, Competitive Landscape and Key Country Analysis to 2022 reveals that the global solar PV module market is projected to decline over the forecast period due to changes in financial support provided, decline in technology prices, shift in focus towards grid infrastructure development, and growth of other technologies. Global efforts to reduce power sector carbon emissions and improve self-sufficiency are few primary drivers which will contribute to the continued deployment of solar PV in various nations across the world.

Effective policies and favourable incentives contributed to the large deployment of solar PV in the historical period. Countries with substantial resources such as China, the US, and Japan were quick to move towards creating significant markets for solar PV. The market outlook for the future will see a large number of emerging nations such as in the Middle East, Africa, and South East Asia, utilising solar to address critical shortcomings of their power generation models. Declining prices of solar equipment’s would support proliferation into price sensitive markets, creating new business opportunities. Larger established markets such as China and Japan suffer from lack of sufficient grid capacity to support large solar PV installations, which has resulted in the removal of supportive mechanisms for solar. Emerging markets such as Brazil and Chile have provisions for solar, as part of their energy development plans, like other progressive nations.

Solar PV module, region, market value ($bn), 2017 and 2022

Source: GlobalData, 2018

GlobalData’s report finds that crystalline silicon (c-Si) module is the dominant solar PV technology in 2017, accounting for 98%, 87%, and 91% respectively, of the annual installations in Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA regions. c-Si will continue to dominate the market over the forecast period with 96%, 91%, and 94% respectively, of solar PV installation within regions in 2022. Their low efficiency and special installation requirement will result in low market penetration for thin-film module. In the forecast period, Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA are estimated to witness an aggregate market volume of 9.38GW, 8.22GW, and 4.53GW respectively.

Asia-Pacific led the solar PV module market with a share of 76.4% in terms of annual installation, in 2017. Americas and EMEA registered market installations of 17.96 GW and 14.62 GW respectively, in 2017. Asia-Pacific will continue leading the market; in spite of a drop in its share of the global market. The market is likely to decline at a negative CAGR of 10.1%, to reach a market value $13.44bn 2022. China is the largest market for solar PV, both globally and within the region; proposed the removal of subsidies in 2018, which is expected to see its market decline at a negative CAGR of 14.8%, over the forecast period. Similarly Japan has reduced its feed-in-tariff rate for solar PV which is likely to cause the market to drop to $1.67bn in 2022.

During the forecast period, the EMEA region is estimated to have the highest solar PV installation rate of 7.5%. The emerging countries within the Middle East and Africa have shifted focus towards renewables to diversify their power mix and capitalise on the abundance of clean energy resources. National development plans, mandated regulations, financial support mechanisms, and market reforms are creating viable opportunities for solar PV module growth within the region, which is likely to reach a market value of $4.85bn in 2022.