Insight’s market and asset-level power price modelling service ‘Benchmark power curve’, predicts that up to ~46GW of new-build renewable technology ̶ ~11GW onshore wind, ~10GW solar, and ~25GW offshore wind may need to be developed by 2030 as to keep in line with the 2050 net-zero targets.
The service also estimates that the large-scale deployment of very low and zero marginal cost wind and solar technologies, along with increasing interconnection in the 2020s, are likely to have a negative impact on wholesale power prices up until 2030.
The company’s research shows that with an increase in high intermittent generation levels, the market will see a corresponding rise in price volatility. The volatility in the power price in 2019 was valued at £13/MWh, but between 2020-24 modelling suggests an increase in volatility in all scenarios to between £18.2/MWh and £23.1/MWh. They warn that this could rise to over £50/MWh by the 2030s.
Cornwall Insight wholesale manager James Brabben said: “The net zero target is defining the shape of the future power market in terms of absolute value and volatility. This is certainly true in the period to the 2030s before we see material changes in power demand from widespread electrification in heat and transport.