US hydropower generation is expected to recover in 2026, even as snow drought conditions in parts of the western US constrain water availability, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency forecasts output will rise by 5% to 259 billion kilowatt-hours, up from 245 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025. Despite the increase, generation will remain 1.8% below the ten-year average and account for around 6% of total US electricity supply.
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Hydropower output continues to depend heavily on seasonal precipitation and snowpack levels. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, gradually releasing water into river systems. However, unusually warm winter temperatures across the western US have reduced snow accumulation and triggered early melting.
Although overall precipitation has been close to normal, a March heatwave accelerated snow-melt in California, the south-west and parts of the north-west. As a result, lower water availability is expected during the peak spring and summer generation period.
In the north-west, home to more than one-third of US hydropower capacity, generation is projected to reach 125 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026. This would mark a 17% increase from 2025 but still sit 4% below the long-term average. Earlier in the winter, a series of atmospheric rivers boosted output in December and January, although they also caused significant flooding.
In California, hydropower generation is forecast at 28.5 billion kilowatt-hours, down 6% from 2025 but 15% above the ten-year average. Reservoir levels remain relatively strong, with major sites above historical averages as of early April. However, snowpack levels are significantly below normal across the Sierra Nevada, and early melting has raised concerns about reduced inflows later in the year.
