Africa’s energy transition is unfolding against a far less stable global backdrop than many expected even a year ago. The US-Israel conflict with Iran has disrupted global oil flows and pushed prices sharply higher, with Brent crude moving above $110 per barrel, according to analysis by OilPrice. That kind of shock tends to clarify priorities – security first, transition second.
It also shifts incentives. As OilPrice notes, tighter supply and rising geopolitical risk are drawing renewed attention to African crude exports, positioning parts of the continent as alternative suppliers to Europe and Asia. That creates an immediate, if uncomfortable, tension. The same markets urged to decarbonise are being pulled back into hydrocarbons by price signals and security concerns.
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Reporting from BBC News makes the constraint tangible. Across parts of the continent, unreliable power supply continues to shape economic life. Persistent outages have forced businesses and households to consider diluting petrol and restricting electricity consumption.
Set against that backdrop, the conclusions of GlobalData’s Africa Energy Transition 2026 report read less like a forecast and more like a reality check. Renewables are expanding quickly, but systems are struggling to keep pace.
GlobalData expects renewables across Africa to rise from 28% of total installed capacity in 2025 to 46% by 2035, with their share of generation increasing from 25% to 37%. While those numbers are significant, adding capacity is not the same as transforming a system.
Demand first, decarbonisation second
Any serious reading of Africa’s energy transition starts with neither targets nor technology costs but demand.
Emissions have grown relatively slowly, reaching around 1.5 gigatonnes of COâ‚‚ equivalent in 2024. That reflects constrained consumption rather than structural decarbonisation.
Around 600 million people still lack access to electricity. As GlobalData notes, electrification remains a development imperative before it becomes a climate strategy.
That pressure is intensifying. Africa’s population is projected to reach around 2.5 billion by 2050. Demand growth is not speculative; it is already visible in load curves, urban expansion and industrial policy.
The tension sharpens as power systems are being asked to expand access and decarbonise at the same time. In practice, when systems are constrained, reliability tends to take precedence.
Egypt and South Africa illustrate this in different ways. Egypt’s demand continues to grow steadily, supported by state-led expansion. South Africa, by contrast, shows what happens when system investment lags, with load-shedding having become a structural feature of the economy.
The grid is the constraint, not the resource
Africa’s renewable resource base is not in question. Solar and wind potential in the continent are among the strongest globally, and deployment is accelerating. Solar PV is expected to dominate additions, forecasted to reach around 85GW by 2035. Onshore wind is also growing quickly, particularly in coastal markets.
But systems are not built to absorb unlimited intermittent generation. That is the constraint that keeps resurfacing.
Thus, gas remains central. GlobalData expects gas-fired capacity in Africa to reach 144GW by 2035. Its share declines, but its absolute role increases. More than 34GW of new thermal capacity is expected to come online between 2026 and 2035, with gas accounting for the majority.
The issue is not with policy hesitation but system design. Transmission networks remain underdeveloped in Africa. Balancing capacity is limited. Market structures do not always reward flexibility. When curtailment risk rises, financing becomes more complex. Lenders adjust assumptions. Some projects stall.
So policymakers hedge. Dispatchable capacity fills the gap.
Hydropower adds another layer of uncertainty. As GlobalData highlights, drought conditions in parts of East Africa have already reduced output, forcing systems to rely more heavily on thermal generation. In that context, solar and wind are not just decarbonisation tools but resilience assets. Even then, their value depends on integration.
There is also a more granular reality that rarely features in high-level projections. Dust accumulation can significantly reduce solar output in some regions. That affects yield assumptions, maintenance regimes and ultimately project bankability.
Storage, hydrogen and transition technologies
Storage sits at the centre of the Africa’s energy transition. It is what turns intermittent generation into a reliable system resource.
Africa’s storage capacity remains small, accounting for around just 2% of the global total in 2025. Growth is expected, with capacity potentially reaching 15GW by 2030. But other regions are moving faster, so Africa’s global share may actually decline.
There is also a shift in technology. Battery storage is expected to overtake pumped hydro by 2027 and dominate by 2030.
That should, in theory, accelerate deployment. Batteries are modular and quicker to install. But they require clear revenue models, and in many markets, those frameworks are still emerging.
Without storage, renewables remain an add-on. With storage, they start to become system-defining. Africa is moving in that direction – just not evenly.
Hydrogen is more striking. Africa has significant potential capacity, yet most projects remain in early stages. Some have already been paused.
The issue is not with technology but demand. Export-led models depend on external offtake, particularly from Europe. That demand has been slower to materialise than expected. Projects without firm buyers struggle to reach final investment decision.
A more pragmatic approach may be emerging. Focus on domestic demand. Low-carbon ammonia for fertiliser is one example, linking energy transition goals with food security and industrial development.
Sustainable fuels and CCUS face similar constraints. While there is significant potential, commercial frameworks are lagging behind.
A transition shaped by system reality
Global energy markets are becoming more volatile. Supply disruptions, price spikes and shifting trade flows are reinforcing the importance of energy security. At the same time, regions such as the Middle East are being forced to rethink their own transition pathways, balancing hydrocarbons with diversification strategies.
Africa’s energy transition is both exposed to global shocks and positioned to benefit from them. It is both a growth market for renewables and a potential supplier of fossil fuels in a tighter global system. So the continent’s transition will not follow a straight line, but rather be uneven, pragmatic and shaped by constraints.
This article is derived from and informed by a GlobalData report. All data, forecasts and project metrics are sourced from that GlobalData extract unless otherwise indicated.
To access the full report, visit the GlobalData Power Intelligence Centre: www.globaldata.com/industries/power.
