China’s carbon emissions might see a reduction by 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030, contingent on the mobilisation of 17.5tn yuan ($2.5tn) in green investments over the next five years.
Bloomberg reported this projection, citing a research note by investment bank China International Capital Corporation (CICC).
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According to CICC, China’s emissions will peak in 2028 at 11.3 billion tonnes.
The Asian country, which is currently responsible for approximately a third of global emissions, is expected to announce its climate goals for 2035 ahead of the Conference of the Parties 30 talks in Brazil.
These goals will address the carbon dioxide (CO₂) footprint of the country’s economy, including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases.
The report comes at a time when China’s energy transition is facing significant challenges, due to a resurgence in coal generation. Policy initiatives aimed at decarbonising heavy industries have also encountered setbacks, influenced by weakened demand and trade tensions.
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By GlobalDataThe research note said that China needs to increase its annual green investment by 40% to 3.5tn yuan, to achieve its target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030.
This investment must reportedly be directed to support sectors such as renewables, electrification, and industrial restructuring.
China’s wind and solar power capacity is projected to increase from 1,700GW in 2025 to over 2,800GW by 2030. Hydropower and nuclear capacities may also rise by 38GW and 57GW, respectively, by 2030.
Energy storage, predominantly battery-based, is expected to grow by 188GWh by 2030.
The country’s electrification ratio is also predicted to reach 35%, with half of the power generated coming from clean resources by 2030.
Recently, another report from clean energy think-tank Ember highlighted that China’s rapid shift to renewable energy is significantly impacting the global energy landscape.
In 2024, China invested $625bn in clean energy, representing nearly 31% of the global total.
