The US Department of Energy (DoE) has released a report warning that blackouts could rise by a factor of 100 by 2030 if the US continues to close down reliable power sources without adding sufficient firm capacity.
The Report on Evaluating US Grid Reliability and Security fulfils Section 3(b) of President Trump’s Executive Order, described as “strengthening the reliability and security of the United States’ electric grid”.
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The report presents a consistent methodology for identifying regions at risk and guiding federal reliability interventions, tackling the issue of grid reliability amid changing energy demands.
The analysis indicates that permitting the retirement of 104GW of firm generation by 2030, without timely replacements, could result in substantial outages during periods when weather conditions are unfavourable for wind and solar generation.
Modelling suggests that annual outage hours could rise from the current single digits to more than 800 hours per year, putting millions of households and businesses at risk.
This situation poses a significant threat to the country’s energy security, particularly as electricity demand rises from AI-driven data centres and advanced manufacturing.
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By GlobalDataSecretary Chris Wright stated: “This report affirms what we already know: the United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas.
“In the coming years, America’s reindustrialisation and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable and uninterrupted power. President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable and secure. If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must unleash American energy.”
The 104GW of plant retirements are set to be replaced by 209GW of new generation by 2030; however, only 22GW will come from firm baseload generation sources.
Even in the absence of retirements, the model indicated that the risk of outages in several regions increases more than 30-fold, highlighting that the existing queue is insufficient to address the deficit in dependable capacity.
The report recommends the use of modern methods to evaluate resource adequacy rather than traditional peak-hour tests, while taking into account the frequency, magnitude and duration of power outages.
In June 2025, the DoE issued an emergency order to prevent blackouts in the southeastern US.
The move was implemented due to the increased demand for electricity caused by severe weather conditions nationwide.
