The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) has published a new report indicating that global power systems reliant on wind and solar energy can provide electricity at costs comparable to, or even lower than, those of current fossil fuel-based power systems in many regions worldwide.
ETC is a worldwide coalition of leaders from various sectors of the energy landscape, dedicated to reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.
Titled ‘Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems’, the report highlights that total global electricity demand could potentially triple, reaching 90,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2050 compared to the current 30,000TWh.
The majority of this demand is expected to be met with new energy generation from wind and solar sources.
The report indicates that numerous countries are capable of operating power systems with 70% or more of their electricity generated from wind and solar sources.
This can be achieved using established technologies currently available, such as battery storage, various forms of energy storage, long-distance transmission, and adaptable energy consumption.
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By GlobalDataCountries in the ‘Sun Belt’ such as India, Mexico, and much of Africa, are ideally situated to reduce power system costs by shifting to low-cost, solar-dominated systems, which primarily necessitate balancing between day and night.
In contrast, countries within the ‘wind belt’, including the UK, Germany, and Canada, which depend on a significant proportion of wind energy, encounter elevated balancing costs.
However, they can still establish affordable and stable energy systems by implementing intelligent policies and fostering innovation.
Furthermore, long-distance transmission lines in numerous areas can serve as one of the most economical solutions for balancing supply and demand, and their utilisation should be maximised wherever possible.
ETC chair Adair Turner said: “Multiple technologies, including nuclear and geothermal, may play a role in zero-carbon power systems.
“But wind and solar will be the dominant source of power in most countries, providing 70% or more of electricity at costs at or below today’s fossil-based systems.”
Key findings of the report indicate that it is technically feasible for systems primarily reliant on wind and solar energy to maintain stability and resilience, provided they incorporate an appropriate combination of balancing and grid technologies.
Such systems are not more prone to blackouts than those dominated by thermal generation.
Moreover, high wind and solar systems can be competitive with today’s wholesale prices and grid costs.
Sun belt countries could see costs more than halve to $30/MWh-$40/MWh by 2050. Wind-dependent country costs are higher but could be comparable to current levels in the future.
The final stage of decarbonisation is expected to be the most costly, especially in nations that require ultra-long duration balancing to accommodate seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand, according to the report.
Once countries achieve significantly low levels of carbon intensity, the focus should shift towards electrification rather than hastening the last-mile decarbonisation process.
The report highlighted that policymakers, the power industry, and financial institutions must work together to ensure effective planning of large-scale wind and solar systems, acceleration of power market reforms, expediting planning approvals and minimising deployment bottlenecks.
