Competitive conditions resulting in pricing pressures will ultimately lead to a fall in the global solar photovoltaic (PV) market, says a report by GlobalData.
Entitled Solar PV Module Market, Update 2016 – Global Market Size, Competitive Landscape and Key Country Analysis to 2020, the report estimates global solar PV will decline to $33.43bn in value, compared to $39.71bn in 2016.
Price differences between suppliers in this market are already minimal and price-sensitive buyers mean competitive cuts are expected to be made to improve sales.
Emerging technologies and economies of scale are expected to lead to an increase in annual solar PV installed capacity from 49.77GW in 2015 to 69.86GW by 2020.
Reduction in module prices will mean less capital investment and more solarpower system installations,suggests GlobalData’s analyst covering Power Praveen Kumar Ama.
Ama said: "The crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin-film modules have seen large price drops since 2010. The average price of a module was approximately $2.17 a watt and $1.99 a watt in 2010 for c-Si and thin-film modules respectively. Module prices fell sharply in 2011 due to a production rush, leading to oversupply."
Ama further expects module prices to fall to $0.48 a watt and $0.46 a watt, respectively, for c-Si and thin-film modules.
However, the growth of solar installations will be affected by the rolling back or reduction of incentives for renewable projects, such as reduction in feed-in-tariff in the UK and Japan, adds the report.