A new report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday predicts that Asian nations will dominate the energy sector in the next decade.
In their 2023 Electricity Market Report the IEA predicts growth in both the renewable and fossil fuels sectors with 70% of growth in global electricity demand is coming from China, India and Southeast Asia combined.
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The Agency observes how 2022’s energy crisis has led to renewed interest in nuclear power. Nuclear power generation is predicted to grow on average by 4% over 2023-25, doubling the 2% growth rate seen between 2015 and 2019.
More than half of the growth in nuclear energy is expected to be dominated by just 4 countries in Asia: China, India, Japan and Korea. This comes despite the widespread shutdown of reactors in Japan, relating to safety concerns following the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Growth in renewables and nuclear energy will, on average, meet more than 90% of the additional electricity demand. China will account for more than 45% of renewables growth in the next two years. During the same period, the EU will likely account for 15%.
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The IEA report predicts that China’s share of global energy consumption will grow from one quarter in 2015 to one third in 2025.
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By GlobalDataElectricity demand in India saw a dramatic 8.4% increase over the past year, compared to 2.6% year-on-year increase in the United States and a 3.5% decline in the EU.
Europe’s decline is attributed to the impact that higher energy bills have had on businesses and consumers. This is the second largest percentage decline since the 2009 financial crash, with the first being the introduction of lockdowns in 2020.
While IEA report authors expect coal-fired electricity generation to decline in Europe in the coming years, this will be offset by growth in the Asia Pacific region.
Despite this, after reaching an all-time high in 2022, global carbon emissions from power generation are expected to plateau by 2025. Global emission growth last year was similar to the 2016-2019 average at 1.3%. After this, 2021 saw dramatic growth at 6%, attributed to the global economy’s attempts to recover from its Covid shock.
The share of renewables in the global power generation mix is expected to grow from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, as electricity generation from oil and gas is set to decrease.
