China is poised to hit a landmark in its energy transition, with installed solar power capacity expected to exceed coal for the first time.

Recently-released data shows solar capacity is on track to overtake coal in 2026, following years of rapid expansion that have turned China into the world’s largest solar market, despite its continued reliance on coal for energy security.

Solar capacity reached approximately 1,200GW by the end of 2025, growing at an average annual rate of 270GW over the past three years. By contrast, coal capacity is expected to climb to around 1,333GW by the end of 2026. By that point, wind and solar combined are projected to account for 50% of China’s total installed power capacity while coal’s share falls to 31%, according to the China Electricity Council.

Analysts caution that the crossover does not mean solar will immediately generate more electricity than coal. Solar plants in China operate at an average capacity factor of around 14%, compared with 50% for coal, meaning coal-fired power stations still produce several times more electricity. Even so, experts say the direction of new investment matters. Total generating capacity across all sources is forecast to rise by more than 400GW this year, largely driven by renewables.

Andreas Sieber of climate group 350.org called the shift a “historic inflection point,” arguing it demonstrates clean energy’s advantage in cost and scale. Others note that renewable power growth is now outpacing overall electricity demand, a trend that has begun to cut fossil fuel emissions, making China’s transition significant for global climate goals.