The global transition toward battery-electric vehicles presents a structural challenge to the platinum market. Autocatalysts for internal combustion engines have long served as the bedrock of platinum demand, yet fleet electrification is steadily reducing that baseline.
Whether the hydrogen sector can scale rapidly enough to absorb lost automotive volumes was the central focus of a recent episode of GlobalData’s Energy Technology podcast, hosted by mining editor Alejandro Gonzalez and featuring Edward Sterck, director of research at the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC); Una O’Hara, a researcher specialising in hydrogen technologies; and Sai Dheeraj Karanam, mining analyst at GlobalData.
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The demand challenge
According to the WPIC, automotive platinum demand is forecast to fall by 4% in 2026. While platinum demand from hydrogen applications is projected to expand by 8% over the same period, it remains an emerging contributor off a small base.
Sterck noted that the council’s base-case outlook projects 28% global battery-electric vehicle market penetration by 2030, resulting in an annual contraction of roughly 1.5% in combined platinum and palladium automotive demand over the next five years.
“The total market size for platinum, in terms of new demand each year, is at the moment about 7.7 million ounces, and hydrogen demand currently for this year is projected to be 77,000 ounces,” Sterck explained. “So it is a relatively small market at the moment. Now that said, it is growing pretty rapidly, albeit off that small base.”
Sterck highlighted hard-to-abate heavy industry as a critical driver for green hydrogen demand over the next decade: “You can’t do a process like iron ore reduction in steel using electricity. You need something like natural gas or coking coal, or you can use green hydrogen as that energy carrier, ultimately generated with clean electricity.”
Platinum for hydrogen
Proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells and electrolysers rely on platinum-group metals (PGMs) to catalyse the chemical reactions that produce hydrogen from water and convert hydrogen into electricity. While research into non-precious alternatives continues, platinum remains difficult to substitute under demanding operating cycles.
“There’s been quite a lot of study around trying to find alternatives to platinum,” O’Hara said, noting that while other metals can serve as substitutes, “the longevity and the resilience of the material isn’t comparable [to platinum] currently.”
Beyond standard durability requirements, hydrogen environments induce severe physical and chemical degradation, such as metal embrittlement and cracking.
“To act within a hydrogen system, it has to be able to be resilient to hydrogen, and platinum is best suited for that because it has a solid binding energy where it is able to hold its own and stay stable,” O’Hara said. “It also enables the reaction where hydrogen can stick to the surface and then break off without forming a hydride, which is an incredibly rare property for a material.”
The problem with scaling hydrogen
Despite technical feasibility, commercial adoption across heavy transport and industry faces significant infrastructure hurdles and capital costs.
“Hydrogen has a lot of infrastructure which is required in order to be used for things like heavy-duty vehicles or transport; this is a big upfront expense,” O’Hara said. “The upfront cost associated with even developing the infrastructure is so big that it slows down the process. The science is there in terms of fuel cells and electrolysers.”
Data from the Hydrogen Council indicates that committed clean-hydrogen investment has reached approximately US$130bn (£97.03bn), yet supply readiness continues to outpace demand due to a lack of firm offtake commitments, policy clarity, and distribution networks.
More hydrogen, less platinum
As the technology matures, equipment manufacturers are actively reducing precious metal loadings per unit to lower capital costs, mirroring the historical thrifting trend seen in automotive catalytic converters.
“Turning to fuel cells and electrolysers, we expect exactly the same process to occur without the regulatory overlay,” Sterck said. “You do not have new regulations coming in, so it is a bit more of a perpetual thrifting process. But it is a trade-off between longevity and cost.”
In heavy-duty fuel cell trucks, platinum loadings are expected to decline from approximately 50 grams per vehicle today toward 30 grams over the coming decade. Consequently, overall demand growth hinges on whether adoption rates outstrip thrifting efficiencies.
“The key question is whether the number of fuel cells and electrolysers being deployed grows faster than the reduction in platinum used in each one,” said GlobalData’s Karanam. “If deployment wins out, overall platinum demand could still rise, but it is a complex outlook.”
Mining industry response
Even if clean hydrogen adoption accelerates, primary platinum supply cannot scale up on short notice. Mine production remains heavily concentrated in South Africa, where developing greenfield assets can take up to 10 years.
“If hydrogen demand rises sharply, it is more likely to add pressure to an already tight market than to trigger a rapid increase in mine supply,” Karanam noted. “The latest outlook suggests mine supply will continue to flatten in 2026. Evidence suggests that near-term supply growth is more likely to come from recycling than from new mines. That means a stronger demand outlook cannot easily be met with new production.”
Can hydrogen become a major platinum market?
To address adoption bottlenecks and secure future demand outlets, platinum producers are actively funding downstream hydrogen market development alongside public support programmes.
“The mining companies themselves are very cognisant that they need to invest in market development,” Sterck said. “Within Europe there are significant subsidies available for developing hydrogen infrastructure, but the mining companies are also very aware that they need to give some support to this as well, so they put investment into that sort of market development.”
Ultimately, while hydrogen represents a viable long-term growth market for platinum, structural mine supply constraints and recycling recovery rates will dictate the market balance over the near term. As Karanam concluded: “Hydrogen is a longer-term growth opportunity for platinum, but tight mine supply is the more immediate issue.”
