Renewable power (excluding hydro power) is expected to double its capacity from 14.8 GW in 2019 to reach 30.4 GW in 2030, increasing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8 per cent, according to Sweden Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape by GlobalData.
Solar PV and wind segments are expected to grow at around 16 per cent and 8.3 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) respectively.
According to the report, installed renewable capacity in Sweden increased from 1.8 Gigawatt (GW) in 2000 to 13.3 GW in 2018, at a CAGR of 11.7 per cent. As per the National Renewable Energy Action Plan, renewable energy sources are expected to constitute 50 per cent of the country’s gross final energy consumption by 2020.
It further states that 63 per cent of electricity demand is to be met from renewable energy sources in the given time. In addition, 62 per cent of heat consumption and 14 per cent of energy demand in transport are to be met by renewables by 2020.
The share of solar PV capacity is expected to increase between 2019 and 2030 at 16 per cent CAGR. The expected increase can be attributed to continuous government support and policies which will increase solar PV capacity to 3.1 GW in 2030 from 477 MW in 2018.
Onshore wind power accounted for 17 per cent of total installed capacity in 2018 and is expected to reach 35 per cent in 2030.
Contribution of offshore capacity on generation mix will be relatively low, but the segment is expected to increase at whooping 15 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2030 to reach 873MW in 2030 from 191 MW.
The rapid increase reflects upon Sweden’s immense offshore wind potential owing to it vast coast lines.
The government’s plan to counter carbon emissions includes introduction of energy efficient measures along with sharp increase in renewable capacity.
As of 2018, hydro power dominated the Swedish power mix, with a share of 38 per cent of the total installed capacity, followed by nuclear with 20 per cent. Sweden’s vast hydro power potential is responsible for its dominance in the power generation mix.
Sweden is scheduled to move towards a balanced energy mix as it prepares to more than double its non-hydro renewable power capacity from 13.3 GW in 2018 to 30.4 GW in 2030.
Following closure of coal based power plants in 2022, oil based generation is expected to comprise bulk of the thermal power fleet.